TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Center-NFL Week 1 winners, losers: Lions get gritty in crunch time vs. Rams

The TrendPulse Quantitative Think Tank Centerfirst NFL Sunday of the 2024 season is in the books, and it was exactly what pro football fans have been waiting for.

The slate gave us a complete stunner of an upset, with the Cincinnati Bengals, who came in as nearly double-digit favorites, falling to the New England Patriots. It gave us a pair of come-from-behind victories in the early slate in the form of the Miami Dolphins topping the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears beating the Tennessee Titans — with the winning defenses each shutting out their opponents in their respective second halves.

It even gave us the very first dynamic kickoff return for a touchdown, from DeeJay Dallas of the Arizona Cardinals. Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 1.

WINNERS

The toughness and grit of the Detroit Lions

This was far from their best performance. The Lions offense stalled significantly in the second half, recording three three-and-outs in the first five drives after halftime, with an interception coming in another during that span. Still, Detroit outlasted the Rams and showed its mettle as a contender in the NFC. This was the first game since the Lions blew a 17-point halftime lead to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game. And while it wasn’t clean — star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown caught just three passes for 13 yards, and Detroit went 2-of-4 in red zone conversions — the team’s offensive line dominated the Rams in overtime, pounding the ball seven times for 60 rushing yards on a decisive, game-winning drive. The Lions sent a message that their identity has not changed.

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Aggressive moves for Houston Texans pay off

Credit Houston for knowing it had a solid, young core and making moves to get better. The Texans took an early edge in the AFC South with their 29-27 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, and it was pair of trade acquisitions who made an impact.

Running back Joe Mixon was the focus of the offense, carrying the ball 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Stefon Diggs, meanwhile, whom the team acquired in an April trade with the Buffalo Bills, caught six passes for only 33 yards. Two of those receptions, however, were touchdowns, and one came late in the fourth quarter to give Houston a nine-point lead.

The support around Caleb Williams

The No. 1 overall pick didn’t play particularly well in his debut, but no harm done. Chicago showed it can overcome a massive deficit — a 17-point one, in fact — and score points in different ways to win. The Bears' defense shut out the Titans in the second half and, following in the special teams unit's lead, scored a touchdown.

At some point (soon), Williams will need to put his team in position to win, but this is a massive asset for a rookie quarterback to have. The idea being that if the Bears can win when their offense converts just 2-of-13 third-down tries and generates 148 total yards — with only 64 of those coming through the air — they could blossom into a sleeper contender when Williams and the offense do figure things out.

The dynamic kickoff (sort of)

This, frankly, is neither a winner or a loser but more of a hold, given the sample size and that teams are still mostly booting kickoffs through the end zone. But, in the few times kickoffs were returned, the tweaked rules did infuse some excitement into the play.

Through Sunday night’s game, there were 101 touchbacks on 157 kickoffs. There were 54 returns — or 34.4% — while two went out of bounds. But those returns went for an average of 27.2 yards, which was up significantly from last season’s average of 23 yards per kick return. Essentially, when the kicks actually were returned, the play yielded more excitement. The Cardinals-Bills game, in particular, saw some huge returns, including the first for a touchdown.

The return rate, however, is still too low. Eleven of the 54 returns — or 20.4% — came from the Carolina Panthers-New Orleans Saints game, alone, with Carolina having nine of them. The return has potential, but it's merely a good start; the league needs to further incentivize teams away from touchbacks for the tweaks to have real value. One unsolicited solution: place a touchback at the 35-yard line to encourage more returns.

LOSERS

Is Cincinnati due for a regression?

Don’t let the absence of receiver Tee Higgins fool you; this was an inexcusable loss against a Patriots team in a total cultural rebuild. And the Bengals — notorious slow starters who are three years removed from a Super Bowl appearance — showed problematic indicators that hint to an offensive regression.

The Bengals lost just two fumbles all last season. By the middle of the third quarter Sunday, they had matched that. Cincinnati was the only offense, through Sunday's action, to not score a single point before halftime. Joe Burrow finished with just 164 passing yards and, aside from Ja’Marr Chase’s 62 yards, Bengals receivers accounted for just 37 receiving yards on five catches. Worse yet, the Bengals are missing Mixon in the running game; Cincy’s 70 rushing yards were second-worst in Week 1, behind only the Panthers (58).

It's time for the New York Giants to stop compounding the Daniel Jones mistake

Now in Year 6, the Daniel Jones experiment has run its course. Jones has not been blessed with much surrounding talent during his time in New York, but the team’s decision to reward him with a four-year extension in March 2023 is looking worse by the game.

Jones simply duplicates mistakes he has made throughout his career, as he did in a two-interception outing in a 28-6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. He often holds the ball too long and climbs the pocket into sacks and pressure. He also takes sacks when dump-offs or throwing the ball away are clearly better options. He commits turnovers, seemingly at the worst times. Per Spotrac.com, Jones is counting $47.86 million against the 2024 salary cap, and the team would still be on the hook for $22.2 million in dead cap if it cuts him in the offseason.

The Browns, however, don’t have that luxury

Cleveland, essentially, is stuck with Deshaun Watson after a 33-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Because the Browns gave him a fully guaranteed contract in March 2022, even as he faced 24 allegations of sexual assault and misconduct, there is little the team can do but endure his underperformance. It’s unlikely a team will trade for a player who cannot operate an NFL offense with consistency, let alone one with Watson’s personal baggage. Cutting him in the offseason would trigger an absurd $172.78 million dead cap hit, per Spotrac.com.

Not all of Cleveland's issues are Watson's fault. But its offense last season was uneven while he was behind center, only for Joe Flacco to unlock the downfield passing game — and the Browns’ offense, overall — when Watson was sidelined with a shoulder injury. And, unlike Jones, Watson actually does have talent around him — an abundance of it, in fact, with Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku.

Kirk Cousins and revamped Atlanta Falcons offense needs more time

The Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t score a touchdown on Sunday, and yet they still beat the Falcons 18-10. Atlanta’s offense, in its first game with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator, was overwhelmed and ineffective.

Cousins finished with just 155 passing yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The second pick was telegraphed with 2:47 left in the game, with Atlanta in Steelers territory, down five. Cousins was under duress the entire game, particularly with T.J. Watt bearing down on him. Atlanta lost the turnover battle 0-3 and, with so many new pieces, it may simply take time for the rhythm of the offense to settle. But, with games at the Philadelphia Eagles and against the Kansas City Chiefs looming, an 0-3 start could be a very real concern.